From Enrollment Crisis to AI Integration: Key Trends Shaping Higher Ed by 2035
A thought provoking article by the Chronicle of Higher Education offers a futuristic view of what higher education may look like in 2035. This Unicus Quick Tip provides a summary of the article as well as the link should you decide to read the entire article. More specifically, I have included the main themes and important insights from excerpts of "What Higher Ed Will Look Like in 10 Years", a report published by The Chronicle of Higher Education. The report explores the challenges and opportunities facing higher education in the coming decade and paints a picture of a sector on the brink of fundamental change. Of course, colleges and universities located in rural areas have been, and continue to experience these challenges and are at greater risk when compared to their urban and suburban peers.
Key Themes:
Demographic Cliff and Enrollment Crisis: The most pressing issue is the shrinking pipeline of traditional college-aged students due to demographic shifts. This will lead to further enrollment declines, forcing institutions to adapt or face closure. As Goldie Blumenstyk, senior writer at The Chronicle, points out: "Nationally, enrollment has been on a downward slide for about a decade... And now, the next big jolt is fast approaching... the overall high-school-to-college pipeline will be 10 percent smaller [by 2035]."
Shifting Curriculum and the Rise of Vocationalism: Student preferences are shifting away from humanities and arts towards fields perceived as more job-ready, like health sciences and engineering. This trend will likely intensify, impacting program offerings and faculty composition. Robert B. Townsend, who tracks these trends for the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, notes: *"For majors like English, history, foreign languages, and religion, the peak was 2012. 'It’s been downhill ever since.'" *
The 'Phygital' Campus and Hybrid Learning: The pandemic accelerated the adoption of distance learning and hybrid models. Campuses will need to adapt physically and conceptually to accommodate this "phygital" future, creating flexible spaces that cater to both in-person and remote learners. Thomas Fisher, professor at the University of Minnesota-Twin Cities, predicts: "Hybrid higher education is likely to need less instructional space... and the nature of classrooms and lecture halls will probably change... accommodating different endeavors over the course of a day."
AI Integration and the Reimagination of Knowledge Production: AI will play an increasingly important role in higher education, both as a tool and a challenge. Hollis Robbins, dean of the College of Humanities at the University of Utah, argues: "Thriving universities will maintain walled gardens of uncontaminated information... guarded by professors and researchers... Universities will realize that they are the holders and producers of two increasingly valuable assets: reliable scholarship... and reliable information for the public."
The Need for Collaboration, Innovation, and Change Management: To survive and thrive, institutions will need to embrace collaboration, streamline processes, and adopt innovative approaches to attract and retain students. Administrators will need strong change management skills and a willingness to challenge the traditional "DNA of higher ed," moving away from competition towards collaboration.
Important Ideas and Facts:
Closures and Mergers: Many institutions, particularly small private colleges and rural public campuses, face closure or mergers due to financial pressures.
Impact on Underserved Students: Closures disproportionately affect low-income and minority students, exacerbating educational inequities.
Rethinking the Value Proposition: Colleges need to clearly articulate the value of a degree in a skeptical landscape, emphasizing career relevance and access to reliable information.
Multi-Generational Campuses: Integrating different age groups on campus, from childcare to elderly care, can help utilize space, foster intergenerational learning, and address societal needs.
Resilient Campuses: Campuses must become more environmentally sustainable and resilient, incorporating ecological principles into their physical design and operations.
The report offers a sobering yet hopeful outlook for higher education's future. While significant challenges lie ahead, institutions that embrace change, prioritize collaboration, and adapt to evolving student needs and technological advancements will be best positioned to thrive in the years to come.
